Private payrolls estimate from ADP's payroll-processing data.
Traded as an NFP preview, though the correlation month-to-month is famously loose.
Usual market effect. Actual above forecast is typically good for the dollar.
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | 90K | 73K | 36K | Bearish |
| Sep 2026 2026-09-29 | 90K | 73K | 36K | Bearish |
| Sep 2026 2026-09-02 | 38K | 47K | 46K | Bullish |
| Aug 2026 2026-08-05 | 44K | 68K | 95K | Bullish |
| Aug 2026 2026-08-04 | 44K | 68K | 95K | Bullish |
| Jul 2026 2026-07-01 | 98K | 118K | 122K | Bullish |
| Jun 2026 2026-06-03 | 122K | 118K | 105K | Bearish |
| May 2026 2026-05-06 | 109K | 118K | 61K | Bullish |
| Apr 2026 2026-04-01 | 62K | 41K | 66K | Bearish |
| Mar 2026 2026-03-04 | 63K | 50K | 11K | Bearish |
| Feb 2026 2026-02-04 | 22K | 46K | 37K | Bullish |
| Jan 2026 2026-01-07 | 41K | 49K | -29K | Bullish |
| Dec 2025 2025-12-03 | -32K | 5K | 47K | Bullish |
| Nov 2025 2025-11-05 | 42K | 32K | -29K | Bearish |
| Oct 2025 2025-10-01 | -32K | 52K | -3K | Bullish |
| Sep 2025 2025-09-04 | 54K | 73K | 106K | Bullish |
| Jul 2025 2025-07-30 | 104K | 77K | -23K | Bearish |
| Jul 2025 2025-07-02 | -33K | 99K | 29K | Bullish |
| Jun 2025 2025-06-04 | 37K | 111K | 60K | Bullish |
| Apr 2025 2025-04-30 | 62K | 114K | 147K | Bullish |
| Apr 2025 2025-04-02 | 155K | 118K | 84K | Bearish |
| Mar 2025 2025-03-05 | 77K | 141K | 186K | Bullish |
| Feb 2025 2025-02-05 | 183K | 148K | 176K | Bearish |
| Jan 2025 2025-01-08 | 122K | 139K | 146K | Bullish |
| Dec 2024 2024-12-04 | 146K | 166K | 184K | Bullish |
| Oct 2024 2024-10-30 | 233K | 110K | 159K | Bearish |
“Read” is Tape Desk's own bullish/bearish call on how the surprise usually lands for US stock indexes. It is a rule of thumb, not advice.
Tape Desk puts the US economic calendar next to a live market-moving news tape, so you see the actual the second it prints instead of refreshing a calendar page. High-impact releases fire an alert 15 minutes ahead and again on release.