Also known as Core PCE Deflator.
Price change in personal consumption excluding food and energy — the Fed's explicitly preferred inflation gauge.
This is THE series the Fed's 2% target is written against. Surprises here move rate expectations directly.
Usual market effect. Hotter-than-forecast inflation usually means higher rates — good for the dollar, bad for stocks.
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Bullish |
| Sep 2026 2026-09-29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | Bullish |
| Aug 2026 2026-08-26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | In line |
| Jul 2026 2026-07-30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Bullish |
| Jul 2026 2026-07-29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | Bullish |
| Jun 2026 2026-06-25 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | In line |
| May 2026 2026-05-28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Bullish |
| Apr 2026 2026-04-30 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | In line |
| Apr 2026 2026-04-09 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | In line |
| Feb 2026 2026-02-20 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | Bearish |
| Jan 2026 2026-01-22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | In line |
| Sep 2025 2025-09-26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | In line |
| Aug 2025 2025-08-29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | In line |
| Jul 2025 2025-07-31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | In line |
| Jun 2025 2025-06-27 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | Bearish |
| Apr 2025 2025-04-30 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | Bullish |
| Mar 2025 2025-03-28 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | Bearish |
| Feb 2025 2025-02-28 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | In line |
| Jan 2025 2025-01-31 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | In line |
| Dec 2024 2024-12-20 | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | Bullish |
| Nov 2024 2024-11-27 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | In line |
| Oct 2024 2024-10-31 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | In line |
“Read” is Tape Desk's own bullish/bearish call on how the surprise usually lands for US stock indexes. It is a rule of thumb, not advice.
Tape Desk puts the US economic calendar next to a live market-moving news tape, so you see the actual the second it prints instead of refreshing a calendar page. High-impact releases fire an alert 15 minutes ahead and again on release.